With wolfgang kubicki, the liberals were able to stop their series of defeats that had lasted for more than a year, but it was hardly enough for a new CDU/FDP coalition to be formed. The left-wing party is threatened with extinction after only two and a half years in parliament, while the pirates have been allowed to continue their triumphant march. The election is seen as an important test for the vote in north rhine-westphalia on the following sunday and for the federal government.
More than 2.2 million citizens are called to the polls. Eleven parties compete for the regular 69 seats in the state parliament. The number of mandates increased significantly as a result of overhang and compensatory mandates. At last count, the state parliament had 95 deputies.
CDU and SPD in polls at 31 to 33 percent. The social democrats were thus able to make up for their historic defeat in 2009 (25.4 percent). Top candidate albig is particularly popular. According to the polls, significantly more citizens liked to see him in government than his CDU rival de jager. The current economics minister is running to succeed outgoing prime minister peter harry carstensen, who is retiring from politics.
Albig has declared a coalition with the greens and the south schleswig electoral association (SSW) to be the desired coalition, because according to the latest polls it is probably not enough for red-green alone. It would be the first time that the party of the danish minority is in government. But a rough coalition is also possible. FDP hopeful kubicki promotes jamaika alliance of CDU, FDP and greens. A classic traffic light with the SPD, greens and FDP would also be conceivable.
"No one is longing for rough coalitions," de jager told ZDF’s "morgenmagazin" on friday. But if there is no other way, it must be possible. In 2009, an alliance between the CDU and SPD collapsed under the eternal adversaries carstensen and SPD state leader ralf stegner. The relationship between de jager and albig is considered to be more relaxed, although de jager recently railed against the "danen traffic light".
In view of the uncertain outcome, the parties have brought out all their prominent figures in the election campaign – from CDU leader angela merkel and SPD leader sigmar gabriel to grunen leaders cem ozdemir and claudia roth, FDP leader philipp rosler and NRW leadership candidate christian linder. Merkel wanted to campaign for de jager again on friday evening.
When the SPD returns to the helm after seven years in opposition, it is also likely to give its campaigners in north rhine-westphalia a boost. If the liberals return to both state parliaments, this will give the ailing federal FDP a strong boost.
The northern greens were last ranked at 12 to 13 percent. The pirate party is between 8 and 10 percent, the SSW, which is exempt from the five-percent clause, is at 4 percent. The FDP could get to 6 to 7 percent. The left is dumping at 2 percent.
In the 2009 state elections, the CDU achieved 31.5 percent, the SPD 25.4, the FDP 14.9 and the greens 12.4. The left received 6 percent and the SSW 4.3 percent. This means that there was actually no majority for black-yellow after the second votes. CDU and FDP could only govern because they got one seat more than the opposition because of complicated rules on overhang mandates. The state constitutional court ruled that this was unconstitutional and ordered a new election.